Sanity in the World?

Into all lives, a little Sanity must fall.

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Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Israel - Hezbollah Cease-Fire

I cannot help but feel this cease-fire as a complete disaster.

In the Mideast mentality they believe a truce or cease-fire as weakness or a chance to re-group, re-arm and then attack again, renewed and refreshed.

(via Cox & Forkum)

The disarming of Hizbollah has already been refused, either the Lebonese army can't do it or won't:

Hizbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said on Monday his guerrillas had achieved a strategic victory over Israel and that it was the wrong time to talk about disarming the group.
"There is a mistake in timing, both psychologically and morally," he said, referring to comments by several Lebanese politicians that the Shi'ite Muslim group should disarm.

"We are before a strategic and historic victory, without any exaggeration," Nasrallah said. "We emerged from the battle with our heads high, and our enemy is the one who is defeated."


Hizbullah will not hand over its weapons to the Lebanese government but rather refrain from exhibiting them publicly, according to a new compromise that is reportedly brewing between Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah.


There was not suppose to be a "compromise" with Hezbollah, they were to disarm.

This is not the end of this conflict.
This cease-fire will be broken and Israel will be attacked again.
You can bet on it.

The fact that Omert has bungled this war has enraged many Israelis where they are calling for his removal.

Every aspect of the government’s handling of the war has been a failure. Take relief efforts as an example. For five weeks the government ignored the humanitarian disaster in the North where over one million Israelis are under missile assault. The government developed no comprehensive plan for organizing relief efforts to feed citizens in bomb shelters or for evacuating them.

And then there is the military failure. The IDF suffers from acute leadership failures - brought to Israel courtesy of Ariel Sharon who hacked away at the General Staff, undermined its sense of mission and treated our generals like office boys just as he decimated the Likud by undermining its political vision and promoting its weakest members.


It wanted to win the war on the cheap. And when the air campaign did not succeed, it abandoned its war goals, declared victory and sued for a cease-fire. When the public objected, after waiting two precious weeks, the government called up the reserves but then waited another unforgivable 10 days before committing them to battle.

"....many Israelis, including those who sat for a month in stifling bomb shelters, reservists who dropped everything and reported to their units and the families who anxiously awaited a telephone from their sons in Lebanon and dreaded the knock of the local IDF liaison are feeling that their sacrifice has been betrayed.

After years of dismissing the UN as an ineffectual and anti-Israel organization, how can Israelis believe that of all the possibilities, it will be the one to make sure that Hizbullah never again threatens our northern towns and villages. "

What exactly did Israel win?
In all this cease-fire doesn't even address the biggest concern that started this, the kidnapped Israelis. It isn't a mandatory condition of the cease-fire at all. So what is their fate in all this?

No one knows.
It is all left to Nasrallah's "goodwill" and that will be as useful as a screen door on a submarine.

Unfortunately, this looks to put a severe damper on any real Mideast peace plan the US was trying to bring about. No one in the Mideast sees this cease-fire as a win for Israel and a loss for Hezbollah. They will see it as a great win for Hezbollah, with Syria and Iran now having more approval because their proxy, Hezbollah, emerged victorious over Israel.

What was needed was a capture or elimination of Nasrallah, cutting off the head of the snake. Would others try and fill his shoes, most likely, but it would have put a definate shockwave through Hezbollah that Israel could reach so far as killing or capturing Nasrallah.

No, I don't think there will be any good that comes from this cease-fire, not for Israel or for the US. This has done nothing but embolden Hezbollah, Iran and Syria.

Good luck in trying to get any concessions or halting of nuclear capabilities of Iran now. They will achieve getting Nuclear capabilities right under our noses, flaunting the fact that the US and the world could not stop them.

What will the world do with a nuclear Iran?